THE AGE OF DECAY, how aging and shrinking populations could usher in the decline of civilization

281pp., paperback, Revised Edition, Cape Town, (2023) 2025

ISBN: 9781037090943

Includes updated projections.

Investment analyst Shamil Ismail on how aging populations and declining birth rates are leading to a shrinking workforce in developed countries; why automation, AI, and raising the retirement age are not solutions, and how attitudes to immigration will need to change.

"This book explores in magnificent detail just how much this long-term trend can reshape the world's economy as well as the lives of ordinary people. Much credit must go to the author for the research he has done and the fascinating way he has used it to demonstrate the challenges we face as a species in the next hundred years." Clem Sunter, former CEO and Chairman of Anglo-American Gold and Uranium

"Most countries' declining birth (fertility) rates are now well below the sustainability level, with several adverse economic implications. In this tautly written and well-researched book, Shamil Ismail focuses on whether there will remain enough essential workers to maintain our urban infrastructure, or whether the lonely old (with little family support) will be living in crumbling dwellings." Professor Charles Goodheart, London School of Economics and author of The Great Demographic Reversal 

Shamil Ismail founded Primaresearch in 2015.